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Re:is this the start of CRISTOBAL ?? (1 viewing) (1) Guest
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TOPIC: Re:is this the start of CRISTOBAL ??
#8488
Calvin SW Cape (User)
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is this the start of CRISTOBAL ?? 1 Month, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 8  
OK, the mets are starting to chatter about an area of disturbance that has developed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

The disturbance is significant enough that it is being designated 94L

This NOAA graphic depicts 94L as the Orange Circle #1

http://www...icane/2008/two_jul13.gif

And this NOAA satellite view was of interest... well, to me anyway ...

http://www...oes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The National Hurricane Center is giving 94L a medium 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Wind shear is expected to remain low, less than 10 knots, for the next four days, and the water temperatures will be plenty warm enough to support development.

Three of the four usually reliable global models predict 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The models seem to put 94L into the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday.

So - looks like we might have something to watch this week ...

All for now,

Bruce
 
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Last Edit: 2008/07/13 16:18 By Calvin SW Cape. Reason: FireFox 3.0 doesn\'t like ME
 
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#8489
ITbum (User)
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Re:is this the start of CRISTOBAL ?? 1 Month, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 15  
Hey Thanks Bruce...

Is the second loop (link) of 94L? Looks like alot of rotation.

Thanks
 
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#8490
Calvin SW Cape (User)
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Re:is this the start of CRISTOBAL ?? 1 Month, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 8  
Yes IT BUM, both of those graphics are of 94L, and I totally agree about the rotation comment.

This is a recent spaghetti model:

http://www...4_0714_00z_op_middle.png

The mets are predicting a Tropical Depression, probably by Today..... and a Tropical Storm event for the Caribbean Islands by Saturday.

Out of time now, but will return and edit (add) more info later.

Bruce
 
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Last Edit: 2008/07/14 08:43 By Calvin SW Cape.
 
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#8492
Calvin SW Cape (User)
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Re:is this the start of CRISTOBAL ?? 1 Month, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 8  
From the Coast Guard Mets, they think there is nothing significant enough to cause 94L to turn to a more northerly course. They are predicting that 94L's westerly track should continue thru the next 74-96 hours. They feel that 94L has presently lost its potential for development into a tropical event "right now" but they are reporting that if it holds together thru 74-96 hours, it will then enter an area that will give 94L the potential to again grow into a tropical event.

From the National Hurricane Center 4pm
THIS SYSTEM (94L) HAS GENERALLY BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING.


94L is going to be a waiting game, but not to worry... it looks like 95L will be named for another Tropical Wave that has come off Africa and begun a track that is similar to that which was taken by 94L

Welcome to Paradise

Bruce
 
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